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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 Sep 27 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 271 Publicado el 2200Z a las 27 Sep 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 26-2100Z hasta 27-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
26/2312Z from Region 3839 (S14E73). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(28 Sep, 29 Sep, 30 Sep).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 26-2100Z a 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 383 km/s at 27/0014Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 27/0931Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
27/0838Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 507 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (28 Sep), quiet to active levels on day
two (29 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (30 Sep).
III. Probabilidades del evento 28 Sep a 30 Sep
| Clase M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 27 Sep 186 Previsto 28 Sep-30 Sep 185/185/185 Media de 90 Días 27 Sep 214
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 26 Sep 011/013 Estimado Afr/Ap 27 Sep 007/007 Previsto Afr/Ap 28 Sep-30 Sep 006/005-009/010-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 28 Sep a 30 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 40% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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