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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 Oct 01 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 275 Publicado el 2200Z a las 01 Oct 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 30-2100Z hasta 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M7 event observed at
30/2359Z from Region 3842 (S15E31). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(02 Oct, 03 Oct, 04 Oct).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 30-2100Z a 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 523 km/s at 01/0219Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 30/2102Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
01/0221Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 222 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (02 Oct, 03 Oct, 04
Oct).
III. Probabilidades del evento 02 Oct a 04 Oct
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 01 Oct 245 Previsto 02 Oct-04 Oct 215/215/210 Media de 90 Días 01 Oct 216
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 30 Sep 009/009 Estimado Afr/Ap 01 Oct 007/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 02 Oct-04 Oct 006/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 02 Oct a 04 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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