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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 Nov 05 0510 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 309 Publicado el 2200Z a las 04 Nov 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 03-2100Z hasta 04-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
04/0140Z from Region 3883 (S06E37). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (05 Nov, 06
Nov, 07 Nov).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 03-2100Z a 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 572 km/s at 04/0016Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 03/2337Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
03/2110Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 118 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (05 Nov), quiet to active
levels on day two (06 Nov) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three
(07 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days
one, two, and three (05 Nov, 06 Nov, 07 Nov).
III. Probabilidades del evento 05 Nov a 07 Nov
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 04 Nov 242 Previsto 05 Nov-07 Nov 240/230/225 Media de 90 Días 04 Nov 222
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 03 Nov 008/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 04 Nov 011/011 Previsto Afr/Ap 05 Nov-07 Nov 010/012-012/018-022/024
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 05 Nov a 07 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 40% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 30% | 55% | 60% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 08/12/2025 | X1.1 |
| Último evento clase M | 12/12/2025 | M1.1 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 12/12/2025 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Días sin manchas | |
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