Viendo archivo del martes, 17 diciembre 2024
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 Dec 17 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 352 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 Dec 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
17/0130Z from Region 3917 (S07, L=010). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 Dec, 19 Dec,
20 Dec).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 701 km/s at 17/0821Z. Total IMF
reached 31 nT at 17/0839Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-11 nT at 17/0701Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 126 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (18 Dec) and quiet levels on
days two and three (19 Dec, 20 Dec).
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 Dec a 20 Dec
| Clase M | 30% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 17 Dec 170 Previsto 18 Dec-20 Dec 170/175/190 Media de 90 Días 17 Dec 200
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 16 Dec 011/014 Estimado Afr/Ap 17 Dec 023/031 Previsto Afr/Ap 18 Dec-20 Dec 013/012-005/005-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 Dec a 20 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 50% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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