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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2025 Jan 02 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 2 Publicado el 2200Z a las 02 Jan 2025IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 01-2100Z hasta 02-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
01/2141Z from Region 3936 (N13W84). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(03 Jan, 04 Jan, 05 Jan).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 01-2100Z a 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 562 km/s at 02/0905Z. Total IMF
reached 13 nT at 02/0936Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-11 nT at 02/1141Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 422 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (03 Jan) and quiet to minor
storm levels on days two and three (04 Jan, 05 Jan). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (03 Jan) and have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (04 Jan, 05
Jan).
III. Probabilidades del evento 03 Jan a 05 Jan
| Clase M | 55% | 60% | 60% |
| Clase X | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 02 Jan 212 Previsto 03 Jan-05 Jan 215/215/210 Media de 90 Días 02 Jan 204
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 01 Jan 048/126 Estimado Afr/Ap 02 Jan 018/024 Previsto Afr/Ap 03 Jan-05 Jan 010/012-014/018-015/018
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 03 Jan a 05 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 50% | 65% | 60% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 08/12/2025 | X1.1 |
| Último evento clase M | 12/12/2025 | M1.1 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 12/12/2025 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Último día sin manchas | 08/06/2022 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| noviembre 2025 | 91.8 -22.8 |
| diciembre 2025 | 131.8 +40 |
| Last 30 days | 108.3 +14.5 |