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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2025 Jan 05 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 5 Publicado el 2200Z a las 05 Jan 2025IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 04-2100Z hasta 05-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
05/0239Z from Region 3947 (N11E29). There are currently 12 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one and two (06 Jan, 07 Jan)
and likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day three (08 Jan).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 04-2100Z a 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 782 km/s at 05/0241Z. Total IMF
reached 8 nT at 05/1652Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-8 nT at 05/1707Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 20 pfu at 05/0055Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1067 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (06 Jan), quiet to
active levels on day two (07 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (08 Jan). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on day one
(06 Jan) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and
three (07 Jan, 08 Jan).
III. Probabilidades del evento 06 Jan a 08 Jan
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 60% |
| Clase X | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Protón | 50% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | Yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 05 Jan 169 Previsto 06 Jan-08 Jan 172/165/165 Media de 90 Días 05 Jan 201
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 04 Jan 021/039 Estimado Afr/Ap 05 Jan 017/021 Previsto Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan 016/022-012/012-009/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 06 Jan a 08 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 65% | 45% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 04/02/2026 | X4.21 |
| Último evento clase M | 25/02/2026 | M2.4 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 03/03/2026 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Last 365 days | 3 días |
| 2026 | 3 días (5%) |
| Último día sin manchas | 24/02/2026 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| enero 2026 | 112.6 -11.4 |
| marzo 2026 | 75.5 -37.1 |
| Last 30 days | 58.7 -66 |