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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2025 Jan 10 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 10 Publicado el 2200Z a las 10 Jan 2025IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 09-2100Z hasta 10-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
10/0942Z from Region 3951 (S15W54). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (11 Jan, 12 Jan, 13 Jan).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 09-2100Z a 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 494 km/s at 10/1110Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 10/0023Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
10/2048Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 193 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (11 Jan) and quiet levels
on days two and three (12 Jan, 13 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (11 Jan, 12 Jan, 13 Jan).
III. Probabilidades del evento 11 Jan a 13 Jan
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 10 Jan 157 Previsto 11 Jan-13 Jan 160/155/150 Media de 90 Días 10 Jan 198
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 09 Jan 009/009 Estimado Afr/Ap 10 Jan 010/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 11 Jan-13 Jan 008/010-006/005-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 11 Jan a 13 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 30% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 04/02/2026 | X4.3 |
| Último evento clase M | 04/02/2026 | M1.8 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 28/01/2026 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Último día sin manchas | 08/06/2022 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| diciembre 2025 | 124 +32.2 |
| febrero 2026 | 133 +9 |
| Last 30 days | 121.6 +13.3 |