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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2025 May 15 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 135 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 May 2025IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 May, 17
May, 18 May).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 604 km/s at 15/0705Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 15/0633Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
14/2329Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 396 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (16 May), quiet to active levels on day
two (17 May) and active to minor storm levels on day three (18 May).
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 May a 18 May
| Clase M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Clase X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 May 119 Previsto 16 May-18 May 118/118/118 Media de 90 Días 15 May 163
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 14 May 013/ 012 Estimado Afr/Ap 15 May 011/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May 007/008-013/015-018/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 May a 18 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 30% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 40% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 24/04/2026 | X2.5 |
| Último evento clase M | 02/06/2026 | M3.3 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 16/05/2026 | Kp6- (G2) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Last 365 days | 3 días |
| 2026 | 3 días (2%) |
| Último día sin manchas | 24/02/2026 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| abril 2026 | 79.3 -6.6 |
| junio 2026 | 146 +66.7 |
| Last 30 days | 96.6 +4 |
