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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2025 Aug 15 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 227 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Aug 2025IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 13 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Aug, 17 Aug,
18 Aug).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 480 km/s at 15/0827Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 15/0840Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
15/0003Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 4262 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (16 Aug, 17 Aug) and unsettled
to active levels on day three (18 Aug).
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Aug a 18 Aug
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 Aug 123 Previsto 16 Aug-18 Aug 125/125/120 Media de 90 Días 15 Aug 136
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 14 Aug 013/ NA Estimado Afr/Ap 15 Aug 007/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug 006/005-006/005-015/018
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Aug a 18 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 20% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 04/02/2026 | X4.21 |
| Último evento clase M | 25/02/2026 | M2.4 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 03/03/2026 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Last 365 days | 3 días |
| 2026 | 3 días (4%) |
| Último día sin manchas | 24/02/2026 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| febrero 2026 | 78.2 -34.3 |
| marzo 2026 | 78.5 +0.3 |
| Last 30 days | 54.3 -74.5 |