Viendo archivo del lunes, 13 octubre 2025
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2025 Oct 13 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 286 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 Oct 2025IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (14 Oct, 15 Oct, 16 Oct).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 12-2100Z a 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 946 km/s at 12/2315Z. Total IMF
reached 9 nT at 12/2106Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 12/2345Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 4077 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (14 Oct, 15 Oct) and
unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (16 Oct). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (14 Oct,
15 Oct, 16 Oct).
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 Oct a 16 Oct
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 13 Oct 141 Previsto 14 Oct-16 Oct 145/150/150 Media de 90 Días 13 Oct 153
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 12 Oct 018/029 Estimado Afr/Ap 13 Oct 019/026 Previsto Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct 011/012-008/012-017/022
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 Oct a 16 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 45% | 45% | 65% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 24/04/2026 | X2.5 |
| Último evento clase M | 17/05/2026 | M1.4 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 16/05/2026 | Kp6- (G2) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Last 365 days | 3 días |
| 2026 | 3 días (2%) |
| Último día sin manchas | 24/02/2026 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| abril 2026 | 79.3 -6.6 |
| mayo 2026 | 92.2 +12.9 |
| Last 30 days | 97 +6.4 |
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