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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2025 Oct 21 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 294 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 Oct 2025IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (22
Oct, 23 Oct, 24 Oct).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 617 km/s at 20/2247Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 20/2150Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
21/0055Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 381 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (22 Oct) and quiet levels
on days two and three (23 Oct, 24 Oct). Protons greater than 10 Mev have
a chance of crossing threshold on day one (22 Oct).
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 Oct a 24 Oct
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 25% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 21 Oct 133 Previsto 22 Oct-24 Oct 135/135/140 Media de 90 Días 21 Oct 154
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 20 Oct 006/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 21 Oct 008/009 Previsto Afr/Ap 22 Oct-24 Oct 009/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 Oct a 24 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 20% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 08/12/2025 | X1.1 |
| Último evento clase M | 31/12/2025 | M7.2 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 22/12/2025 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Último día sin manchas | 08/06/2022 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| noviembre 2025 | 91.8 -22.8 |
| Last 30 days | 116.4 +22.7 |