Viendo archivo del viernes, 14 noviembre 2025
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2025 Nov 14 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 318 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Nov 2025IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one and two (15 Nov, 16 Nov)
and likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day three (17 Nov).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 746 km/s at 13/2147Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
14/1405Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
14/1704Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 16 pfu at 14/0950Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 534 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (15 Nov), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (16 Nov) and unsettled to minor storm levels on
day three (17 Nov). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on day
one (15 Nov), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (16 Nov)
and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (17 Nov).
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Nov a 17 Nov
| Clase M | 70% | 70% | 60% |
| Clase X | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Protón | 40% | 25% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 14 Nov 145 Previsto 15 Nov-17 Nov 145/135/130 Media de 90 Días 14 Nov 153
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 13 Nov 043/059 Estimado Afr/Ap 14 Nov 009/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov 008/008-011/015-017/022
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Nov a 17 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 35% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 55% | 65% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 08/12/2025 | X1.1 |
| Último evento clase M | 31/12/2025 | M7.11 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 02/01/2026 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Último día sin manchas | 08/06/2022 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| diciembre 2025 | 124 +32.2 |
| enero 2026 | 122 -2 |
| Last 30 days | 111.1 +8.3 |