Affichage des archives de mercredi, 17 juillet 2013

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2013 Jul 17 1303 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
17 Jul 2013	114	007
18 Jul 2013	113	019
19 Jul 2013	113	012

Bulletin

Solar activity is still low, with only few C-class flare reported during last 24 hours. The Catania sunspot group 30 (NOAA AR 1791) and NOAA AR 1793 still have potential to produce C-class, and possibly M-class flares. The CACTUS software reported the CME, first seen in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at 03:48 UT on July 16, with the speed of about 400 km/s and width of 120 degrees. From the currently available data it seems that the bulk of the CME mass is directed northward of the Sun-Earth line. The arrival of the CME at the Earth is not very probable, but we do expect arrival of the CME driven shock wave. The Earth is inside a slow solar wind with the speed of 350 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is about 4 nT. The arrival of the fast flow from the low-latitude coronal hole in the northern hemisphere which reached the central meridian on July 16 is expected on July 18. The CME driven shock wave associated with the CME on July 16, might arrive at the Earth on July 20. We expect minor to major geomagnetic disturbance due to arrival of the fast flow in the following 48 hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 054, sur la base de 13 stations.

Indices solaires pour 16 Jul 2013

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	114
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	006
Ap estimé	005
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	050 - Basé sur 18 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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