Affichage des archives de dimanche, 5 janvier 2014

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2014 Jan 05 1227 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
05 Jan 2014	240	005
06 Jan 2014	250	006
07 Jan 2014	250	007

Bulletin

Two C flares and two M flares were measured by GOES during the past 24 hours. A long duration M4.0 flare occurred in the western part of NOAA AR 11944 on January 4 with peak time at 19:46 UT. An associated CME is mainly propagating southward, but more properties are difficult to determine due to a data gap in STEREO and LASCO imagery. NOAA AR 11944 continued to grow in size and number of sunspots. It currently has a beta- gamma-delta magnetic configuration of its photospheric field. A long duration M2.0 flare erupted on January 4 with peak time at 22:52 UT. The source region for this event is NOAA AR 11936, currently located at the west limb. A related CME was observed in LASCO/C2 and STEREO B coronagraphic imagery (first measurement in LASCO/C2 at 23:12 UT). Based on the current observations, the CME is mainly propagating in the northwest direction with an estimated projected speed of 520 km/s. A glancing blow might arrive at Earth on January 8 around 0:00 UT. The >10 MeV proton flux was enhanced during the past 12 hours, but remained below the threshold level. The flaring chances for the next 48 hours are high: 90% for C flares, 70% for M flares. There is also some chance for an X flare (20%). We maintain the warning condition for proton events. Current solar wind speed measured by ACE is around 450 km/s. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field remains around 4 to 6 nT. Current geomagnetic conditions are quiet (K=0 to 2) to unsettled (K=3) (estimated NOAA Kp 1 to 2 and K_Izmiran 1 to 3). Mainly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to continue for the next 48 hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 093, sur la base de 13 stations.

Indices solaires pour 04 Jan 2014

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	215
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	006
Ap estimé	005
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	092 - Basé sur 08 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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