Affichage des archives de jeudi, 27 février 2014

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2014 Feb 27 1116 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
27 Feb 2014	180	016
28 Feb 2014	180	019
01 Mar 2014	180	007

Bulletin

Given the large number of complex, active regions on the disk, solar activity has been moderate. The strongest flare was an M1.1 flare from NOAA AR 1982, now approaching the solar West limb. For the coming days, the largest chance for major flaring comes from active region NOAA1990-Cat52 and NOAA1991-Cat59. In particular NOAA1990-Cat52 (the source of the X4.9 flare of Feb 25) is now categorised as beta-delta and is slowly increasing in size. At the time of this writing, the expected shock from the CME following the X4.9 flare has not arrived yet. ACE measurement of low energy proton fluxes are rising since Feb 26 22:00, therefore suggesting the shock is near. We expect thus active geomagnetic conditions later today. They will continue into tomorrow Feb 28 as we expect the influence of the fast solar wind stream from a (small) coronal hole.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 142, sur la base de 05 stations.

Indices solaires pour 26 Feb 2014

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	226
Flux solaire à 10 cm	178
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	002
Ap estimé	003
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	155 - Basé sur 19 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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