Publié: 2014 Oct 01 1234 UTC
Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)
| Flux de 10 cm | Ap | |
|---|---|---|
| 01 Oct 2014 | 155 | 015 |
| 02 Oct 2014 | 150 | 017 |
| 03 Oct 2014 | 147 | 017 |
Only one C-class flare was observed during the period. This C6.7 flare was located in NOAA 2172 and peaked at 03:06UT. The other 8 sunspot groups have been quiet. NOAA 2178 seems to be the most complex, with opposite magnetic polarities close to each other but no apparent delta structure. A CME first observed by LASCO at 08:48UT on 01 October was associated to a prominence eruption near the east limb. It is not Earth directed. The x-ray background flux is still above the C1-level. Two 20-degrees long filaments visible in the western solar hemisphere have remained quiet. C-class flaring is expected, with still a chance on an isolated M-class flare. Solar wind speed varied between 350 and 400 km/s, with peaks near 450 km/s. Bz fluctuated between -7 and +5 nT. A few isolated active periods were recorded. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled, with isolated active periods possible.
Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 103, sur la base de 12 stations.
| Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania | 185 |
| Flux solaire à 10 cm | 162 |
| AK Chambon La Forêt | 023 |
| AK Wingst | 014 |
| Ap estimé | 014 |
| Nombre international de taches solaires estimé | /// - Basé sur /// stations |
| Jour | Commencer | Max | Fin | Loc | Force | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Types de sursaut radio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aucun | ||||||||||
Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive
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