Affichage des archives de mercredi, 17 décembre 2014

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2014 Dec 17 1232 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
17 Dec 2014	185	008
18 Dec 2014	185	007
19 Dec 2014	180	010

Bulletin

The Sun released three M flares and four C flares during the past 24 hours. An M8.7 flare was released by NOAA AR 2242 on December 17 with peak time 04:51 UT. It was preceded by an M1.5 flare produced by AR 2242 peaking at 1:10 UT and an M1.1 flare produced by AR 2241 peaking at 1:50 UT. An associated Type II radio burst was observed by Learmonth observatory between 4:49 and 5:15 UT with an estimated speed of 910 km/s. After a data gap, LASCO C3 imagery showed a CME first detected at 9:18 UT on November 17 and probably associated to the M8.7 flare. Since AR 2242 is close to the central meridian, this CME is expected to become geoeffective. Using a speed of 910 km/s as estimated by the Type II radio burst, a tentative arrival time around UT midnight on December 19-20 is obtained. M and even X flaring from AR 2242 and AR 2241 are possible in the next 24 hours. There is a chance for proton storms in the days ahead. In the past 24 hours, solar wind speed observed by ACE fluctuated between about 370 and 470 km/s. The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was stable and mainly between 5 and 6 nT. Over the past 24 hours, geomagnetic conditions were quiet (K Dourbes between 1 and 3; NOAA Kp between 2 and 3). Quiet geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 4) are expected on December 17, 18 and the first half of December 19. Active to minor storm conditions are possible in the second half of December 19 in view of the expected CME arrival.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 137, sur la base de 07 stations.

Indices solaires pour 16 Dec 2014

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	185
AK Chambon La Forêt	016
AK Wingst	008
Ap estimé	008
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	124 - Basé sur 18 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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