Publié: 2015 Jan 13 1305 UTC
Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)
| Flux de 10 cm | Ap | |
|---|---|---|
| 13 Jan 2015 | 159 | 007 |
| 14 Jan 2015 | 158 | 010 |
| 15 Jan 2015 | 157 | 010 |
There were two M class flares early today (M5.6 at 04:24 UT and M4.9 at 04:58 UT) from NOAA AR 2257. No associated CME was observed. More M-flares can be expected and due to the position of this AR very close to the west limb, a proton event at Earth may occur. The other ARs visible on disk are not expected to produce more than C-class flaring. A partial halo CME originating from NOAA AR 2261 was seen appearing first in LASCO-C2 at 15:36 UT on January 12. It is a faint CME with speed around 1000 km/s, that could have an Earth directed component with a possible predicted arrival on January 14 around 19:00 UT. Geomagnetic conditions are quiet and expected to remain so until the eventual arrival of the partial halo CME from January 12.
Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 076, sur la base de 08 stations.
| Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania | /// |
| Flux solaire à 10 cm | 159 |
| AK Chambon La Forêt | 013 |
| AK Wingst | 008 |
| Ap estimé | 007 |
| Nombre international de taches solaires estimé | 092 - Basé sur 09 stations |
| Jour | Commencer | Max | Fin | Loc | Force | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Types de sursaut radio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0413 | 0424 | 0438 | N06W70 | M5.6 | 2B | 290 | 50/2257 | III/1 |
| 13 | 0446 | 0458 | 0510 | ---- | M4.9 | 50/2257 | VI/2 |
Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive
Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC
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| Dernière classe X | 08/12/2025 | X1.1 |
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