Affichage des archives de mercredi, 4 novembre 2015

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2015 Nov 04 1230 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
04 Nov 2015	123	034
05 Nov 2015	120	026
06 Nov 2015	118	010

Bulletin

NOAA 2445 developed a magnetic delta structure near the southern tip of the main trailing spot. It was the source of 8 C-class flares and an impulsive M1.9 flare peaking at 03:26UT, which was associated with a non earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME). It also was the source of an M2.5 flare peaking at 12:03UT. More details in the next bulletin. NOAA 2443 continued its gradual decay, and is also losing its delta structure in the middle portion. It produced only 2 C-class flares, the strongest a C5.5 flare peaking at 19:09UT. A group of sunspots (Catania 65) is rounding the northeast limb, but has been relatively quiet so far. No earth-directed CMEs have been observed.

C-class flares are expected, with a chance on an isolated M-class flare from active regions NOAA 2443 and NOAA 2445.

Earth remained under influence of the high speed stream (HSS) of the equatorial coronal hole (CH). Solar wind speed undulated between 600 and 750 km/s, with a maximum speed near 770 km/s around 04:00UT. Bz varied between -10 and +10 nT, being mostly negative from 17:00UT till midnight, and again from 03:00UT till the end of the period. The planetary K index ranged from active to minor geomagnetic storming. The local K at Dourbes was unsettled to active, with a single minor storming episode at 08:00UT.

Unsettled to minor geomagnetic storming is expected, with a chance on a major (K = 6) storming episode in response to the continued effects from the HSS of the equatorial CH.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 111, sur la base de 12 stations.

Indices solaires pour 03 Nov 2015

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	124
AK Chambon La Forêt	054
AK Wingst	033
Ap estimé	034
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	082 - Basé sur 25 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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