Affichage des archives de jeudi, 5 novembre 2015

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2015 Nov 05 1230 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
05 Nov 2015	109	017
06 Nov 2015	107	010
07 Nov 2015	105	031

Bulletin

Flaring activity was concentrated at the very beginning of the period. NOAA 2445 produced an M2.5 flare peaking at 12:03UT. It was associated with a non earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME). NOAA 2443 produced an M3.7 flare peaking at 13:52UT. The associated CME had an earth- directed component with impact expected on 07 November. Both active regions have lost their magnetic delta, but still show some magnetic mixing. NOAA 2448, near the northeast limb, produced the only other flare of the period (C1 at 22:53UT). No flaring above the C1 level has been recorded since midnight. An active region is approaching the southeast limb. No other earth-directed CMEs have been observed.

C-class flares are expected, with a chance on an isolated M-class flare.

Earth remained under the influence of the high speed stream (HSS) of the equatorial coronal hole (CH). Solar wind speed declined from about 700 km/s to its current value just above 500 km/s. Bz varied between -5 and +8 nT, being mostly positive till about 06:00UT, then turning negative till about 10:00UT. The interplanetary magnetic field has been directed away from the Sun since about 20:00UT. Minor geomagnetic storming persisted till early in the period (15UT). From then on, quiet to active geomagnetic conditions were recorded.

Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected, with still a chance on a minor storming episode as Earth is exiting the HSS of the equatorial CH. Minor to major storming is possible on 07 November with the expected arrival of the 04 November CME.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 091, sur la base de 17 stations.

Indices solaires pour 04 Nov 2015

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	115
Flux solaire à 10 cm	114
AK Chambon La Forêt	025
AK Wingst	026
Ap estimé	030
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	105 - Basé sur 23 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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