Affichage des archives de lundi, 6 février 2023

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2023 Feb 06 1237 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
06 Feb 2023	142	013
07 Feb 2023	143	017
08 Feb 2023	144	004

Bulletin

Over the past 24 hours, the solar flaring activity has been at low levels with only 4 C-class flares. The strongest flare was a GOES C7.9 class flare originating from NOAA AR 3211 with a peak at time 12:12UT today, while the other three flares were low C-class flares. As all of the active regions have an alpha or beta magnetic field configuration of the photospheric magnetic field, we expect the solar flaring activity to remain at low levels, with C-class flares expected and a small possibility of M-class flares.

During the last 24 hours there were no potentially Earth-directed coronal mass ejections detected in the available coronagraph observations.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has been below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind has started to slowly increase since yesterday 23:00UT from about 340 km/s to 420 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field strength also increased to 10-12 nT. We expect the solar wind speed and magnetic field to stay enhanced in response to the expected high speed stream associated with the negative polarity coronal hole in the northern hemisphere, which crossed the central meridian on February 3rd. A glancing blow from the coronal mass ejection that was first observed by LASCO C2 on February 3, 10:36UT, may be expected at Earth late today or tomorrow morning. However, if the coronal mass ejection arrives at Earth, its impact may not be clearly observed due to the expected simultaneous arrival of the fast solar wind.

During the last 24 hours, the geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (K-Bel=2-3 NOAA-Kp=2-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled in the next days, with possible isolated active periods due to influence of the high speed stream.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 119, sur la base de 12 stations.

Indices solaires pour 05 Feb 2023

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	144
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	004
Ap estimé	003
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	083 - Basé sur 19 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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