Affichage des archives de dimanche, 5 mars 2023

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2023 Mar 05 1231 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
05 Mar 2023	182	012
06 Mar 2023	182	012
07 Mar 2023	182	007

Bulletin

The solar flaring activity was at higher levels of the past 24 hours: Two M-class flare occurred (M5.3-class and M1.3-class) with a peaking time at 15:57 UTC on March 04, and 02:25 UTC on March 5 in the most complex region on disc, NOAA active region 3234 (with a magnetic complexity of beta-gamma-delta). NOAA active regions 3242, 3243 and 3238 also produced C-class flares. The other region on the disc did not show any significant flaring activity. NOAA active region 3234 is currently located on the North-West the limb of the visible disc seen from Earth and about the rotated over the disc, however flaring activity in this region may still be visible from Earth. The flaring activity over the next 24 hours is expected to remain mostly at levels with C-class flares, with possible isolated M-class flare or even X-class flare.

Several coronal mass ejections and flows were observed in the currently available SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery and automatically detected by the Cactus tool over the past 24 hours. No clear Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were identified.

The greater than 10 MeV protons flux was at the background levels over the past 24 hours. The proton flux is expected to be at the background levels over the next day. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux fluctuated around the 1000 pfu threshold due to the enhanced solar wind condition and is expected to remain at that level over the next days. The 24-hour electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to remind at moderate levels over the next 24 hours.

The Earth is currently under the influence of the fast solar wind streams associated to the equatorial coronal hole of negative polarity that reached the central meridian on March 02. The solar wind speed ranged between 500 km/s and 620 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic showed the values between 5.0 nT and 7.8 nT, and the southward interplanetary magnetic component, Bz, fluctuated between -6.4.2 nT and 5.2 nT. The solar wind conditions near Earth is expected to remain elevated for the next 1-2 days.

The geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettle in response to the solar wind enhancement associated to the equatorial coronal hole, and the extended periods of southward interplanetary magnetic component, Bz, being negative. The geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain quiet to unsettle with possible short periods of active conditions.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 128, sur la base de 03 stations.

Indices solaires pour 04 Mar 2023

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	182
AK Chambon La Forêt	031
AK Wingst	019
Ap estimé	021
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	123 - Basé sur 12 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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