Affichage des archives de mercredi, 7 juin 2023

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2023 Jun 07 1231 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
07 Jun 2023	172	006
08 Jun 2023	174	018
09 Jun 2023	176	015

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

The solar flaring activity was at moderate levels, with one M-class flare and several C-class flares being detected in the last 24 hours. The largest flare was a M4.7 flare, peaking at 11:46 UTC on June 07, associated with NOAA AR 3327 (beta-gamma-delta class). This region is currently the most complex active region on the disk and was the main driver of the flaring activity observed over the past 24 hours. Isolated C-class flaring was produced by NOAA AR 3324 and by NOAA AR 3329 (beta class). NOAA AR 3323 (beta-gamma class) is the second most complex active region on the visible solar disc but remained quiet. Other regions on the disc have simple configuration of their photospheric magnetic field (alpha and beta) and did not show any significant flaring activity. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours with a small chance for isolated X-class flare.

Éjection de masse coronale

In the past 24 hours, several coronal mass ejections (CME) and flows were observed in the available SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery and automatically detected by the Cactus tool over. In particular, the CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 at around 03:35 UTC on June 06. The CME is believed to originate from a region of coronal dimming located near N10E60. The bulk of the CME is directed to the north-east and is not expected to arrive to Earth. Another CME to the south-east can be seen from 07:05 UTC on June 07, likely related to the C7.2 flare from S22E40 with an accompanying on disc dimming and a type II radio burst detected around 06:37 UTC. The CME appears narrow and slow and is unlikely to arrive to Earth. However, a full analysis is still ongoing, and more details will be provided later. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Trous coronaux

Two positive polarity coronal holes, one in the northern hemisphere (N30) and one the southern hemisphere (S40) are now crossing the central meridian. While no strong high speed stream arrival is expected, some enhancements in the solar wind near Earth could be observed on June 9th - June 10th.

Vent solaire

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) indicated a return to a near slow solar wind regime. The solar wind speed decreased from values around 420 km/s to 330 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude was about 5 nT. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -4 nT and 4 nT. The magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the positive sector (field directed away from the Sun). Slow solar wind conditions are expected to prevail on June 07, with probability for a weak enhancement on June 08, due to the CME associated with a filament eruption in the southwest sector on June 4th, which may have a glancing blow at Earth. On June 09-10, the solar wind from a coronal hole with positive polarity in the northern hemisphere may arrive to the Earth, but since the coronal hole is located at high latitudes, the corresponding high speed stream may miss the Earth.

Géomagnétisme

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally quiet, with an unsettled period over Belgium between 10:00 and 16:00 UTC on June 6th. Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected, with a chance of reaching active levels on June 08 if we see the glancing blow from the 04 June CME, or on June 09-10 if the high speed stream from the positive polarity coronal hole arrives.

Niveaux de flux de protons

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold for the next days.The 24h electron fluence was at normal level. The electron fluence is expected to be at normal levels in the next days.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 191, sur la base de 14 stations.

Indices solaires pour 06 Jun 2023

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	172
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	008
Ap estimé	008
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	182 - Basé sur 27 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

<< Aller à l'aperçu quotidien