Affichage des archives de vendredi, 4 août 2023

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2023 Aug 04 1231 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
04 Aug 2023	160	018
05 Aug 2023	159	024
06 Aug 2023	159	011

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

The solar flaring activity was moderate during the last 24 hours, with one M2.0 flare produced by NOAA Active Region (AR) 3386 which peaked at 04:24 UTC today. During the flare, the source region (AR 3386) of the flare had beta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. Several C-class flares ranging from C2 to C8 were also produced in the last 24 hours: the brightest C8-class flare was produced NOAA Active Region (AR) 3380. For the next 24 hours, we are expecting several C-class flares and one or more M-class flare mainly from NOAA ARs 3386, 3394, and 3380. There is a small chance of an X-flare.

Éjection de masse coronale

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph observations during last 24 hour. Among the observed CMEs, one CME was observed at 02:48 UTC (as detected by Cactus tool) today. It has its main component in the NW direction with a projected speed of 597 km/s (as measured by Cactus tool). It is associated with the M2.0 flare from NOAA AR 3386 (peaked at 04:24 UTC today) and the filament eruption below the same AR region. But, no Earth- directed components were identified.

Vent solaire

Earth is presently within the slow solar wind regime, ranging from 320 km/s to 490 km/s. The North-South component (Bz) is fluctuating between -8 and 11 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field is slightly disturbed with values ranging from 6 nT to 16 nT. Enhancements in solar wind parameters are expected, if high speed stream from the coronal hole that crossed the central meridian on Aug 01 or the coronal mass ejection (CME) observed on Aug 02, arrives at Earth.

Géomagnétisme

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally at quiet to unsettled conditions (NOAA Kp and K BEL 1 to 3). We expect to see active to minor storm conditions if the high speed stream from the coronal hole, which crossed the central meridian on Aug 01 or the coronal mass ejection (CME) observed on Aug 02, arrives at Earth.

Niveaux de flux de protons

The 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. It is expected to stay below the threshold level for the next 24 hours.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence continues to be at normal level. It is expected that this parameter to remain below the threshold level in the coming 24 hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 131, sur la base de 09 stations.

Indices solaires pour 03 Aug 2023

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	173
Flux solaire à 10 cm	163
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	008
Ap estimé	007
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	146 - Basé sur 16 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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