Affichage des archives de jeudi, 3 août 2023

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2023 Aug 03 1234 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
03 Aug 2023	173	018
04 Aug 2023	173	015
05 Aug 2023	172	017

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

The solar flaring activity was moderate during the last 24 hours, with three M-class flares, all produced by NOAA Active Region (AR) 3380. The strongest reported flare was two GOES M1.7 flare which peaked at 14:52 UTC on Aug 02. Several C-class flares ranging from C2 to C9 were also produced in the last 24 hours: the brightest C9-class flare was produced NOAA AR 3380. For the next 24 hours, we are expecting several C-class flares and one or more M-class flare mainly from NOAA AR 3380. There are very likely a small chance of an X-flare.

Éjection de masse coronale

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph observations during last 24 hour. Only few coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed but all of them were slow and mostly narrow and no Earth-directed components were identified.

Trous coronaux

An equatorial (negative polarity) coronal hole crossed the central meridian on Aug 01. The solar wind from this coronal hole is expected to enhance the solar wind environment near Earth on 3 and 4 Aug.

Vent solaire

Earth is presently within the slow solar wind regime, velocity ranging from 320 km/s to 390 km/s. The North-South component (Bz) ranged between -9 and 3 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field ranging from 2 nT to 10 nT. The solar wind speed may increase if the high speed stream from the coronal hole that crossed the central meridian on Aug 01 hits the Earth in the coming 24 hours.

Géomagnétisme

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally at quiet to active conditions (NOAA Kp and K BEL 1 to 4). We expect to see active to minor storm conditions if the high speed stream from the coronal hole, which crossed the central meridian on Aug 01, hits the Earth.

Niveaux de flux de protons

The 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. It is expected to stay below the threshold level for the next 24 hours.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence continues to be at moderate to normal level. It is expected that this parameter to remain below the threshold level in the coming 24 hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 156, sur la base de 11 stations.

Indices solaires pour 02 Aug 2023

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	207
Flux solaire à 10 cm	173
AK Chambon La Forêt	015
AK Wingst	017
Ap estimé	015
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	164 - Basé sur 21 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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