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Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2023 Aug 15 1234 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
15 Aug 2023	154	006
16 Aug 2023	155	018
17 Aug 2023	156	012

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

The solar flaring activity was at low levels. The largest flare was a long duration C8.9 flare peaking at 21:10 UTC on August 15, associated with the region that just rotated over the east solar limb, which was numbered NOAA AR3405. This region was the most active, also producing several other low-level C-class flares. NOAA AR3395, near the west limb, was also active producing a C4.1 flare that peaked at 06:57 UTC. This region is expected to rotate off the disk over the next day. Two new, so far unnumbered, regions have begun to emerge in the southern hemisphere (S22W11 and S22E32) but have so far been quiet. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares likely and a low chance for isolated M-class flares.

Éjection de masse coronale

The small filament eruption from August 13 has been analysed and is not expected to impact Earth. There were no other Earth- directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) detected in the available coronagraph observations.

Vent solaire

The solar wind conditions reflected a slow solar wind regime. The interplanetary magnetic field ranged between 2 and 5 nT. Bz had a minimum value of -4nT. The solar wind speed decreased from 370 km/s to around 300 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the negative sector (field directed towards from the Sun). On August 15 the interplanetary magnetic field and solar wind speed are expected continue to reflect a slow solar wind regime. A slight enhancement in the solar wind speed could be expected from August 16 in response to the solar wind associated with the positive coronal hole, which began to cross the central meridian on August 12.

Géomagnétisme

During last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions were at quiet levels (NOAA KP 1-2, K-Bel 0-2). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at quiet levels on August 15. Unsettled to active conditions may be possible from August 16 due to the solar wind associated to the positive polarity coronal hole.

Niveaux de flux de protons

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux oscillated around the 1000 pfu threshold, crossing this threshold for a short period. It is expected to decrease and remain below this threshold over the next days. The 24 hour electron fluence was at nominal to moderate levels. The electron fluence is expected to be at nominal levels for the next days.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 119, sur la base de 19 stations.

Indices solaires pour 14 Aug 2023

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	154
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	006
Ap estimé	005
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	116 - Basé sur 27 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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