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Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2023 Aug 16 1236 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
16 Aug 2023	162	012
17 Aug 2023	168	014
18 Aug 2023	172	010

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

The solar flaring activity was at low levels. The largest flare was a long duration C2.3 flare peaking at 21:52 UTC on August 15, associated NOAA AR3405. NOAA AR 3403 remains the most complex region on disk and produced low level C-class flares. One of the new regions that emerge on August 15, now numbered NOAA AR3407, continued to emerge and grew rapidly over the last day. The other new region from August 15, numbered NOAA AR 3406, remained relatively small. Further small regions have started to emerge near NOAA 3403 and 3407 but have been quiet so far. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares likely and a low chance for isolated M-class flares.

Éjection de masse coronale

There were no other Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) detected in the available coronagraph observations.

Vent solaire

The solar wind conditions reflected a slow solar wind regime. The interplanetary magnetic field ranged between 2 and 7 nT. Bz had a minimum value of -5nT. The solar wind speed was stable around 300 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field orientation switched multiple times between the negative sector (field directed towards the Sun) and the positive sector (field directed away from the Sun). A slight enhancement in the solar wind speed could be expected on August 16 and 17 in response to the solar wind associated with the coronal holes, which began to cross the central meridian on August 12 and 13.

Géomagnétisme

During last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions were at quiet levels globally (NOAA KP 1-2) with local unsettled intervals locally (K-Bel 1-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at quiet levels, with active periods possible on August 16-17 due to the solar wind associated with the coronal holes, which began to cross the central meridian on August 12 and 13.

Niveaux de flux de protons

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu threshold as measured by GOES 16. It is expected to decrease and remain below this threshold over the next days. The 24 hour electron fluence was at nominal to moderate levels. The electron fluence is expected to be at nominal levels for the next days.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 151, sur la base de 14 stations.

Indices solaires pour 15 Aug 2023

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	158
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	004
Ap estimé	004
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	126 - Basé sur 26 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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