Affichage des archives de mercredi, 30 août 2023

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2023 Aug 30 1231 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
30 Aug 2023	143	006
31 Aug 2023	143	007
01 Sep 2023	143	014

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

The solar flaring activity was at low levels, with few C-class flares recorded in the past 24 hours. The largest flare was an C4.0 flare, peaking at 23:27 on Aug 29, associated with the NOAA AR 3417 (beta class). NOAA AR 3415 (beta-gamma class) is currently the most complex region on the disk but produced only B-class flare. Low flaring activity was also produced by NOAA AR 3413 (beta class) and by AR, that has recently rotated onto the visible side of the solar disk (N21E81). Other regions on the disc have simple configuration of their photospheric magnetic field (alpha and beta) and did not show any significant flaring activity. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares likely and M-class flares possible.

Éjection de masse coronale

Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 at around 17:48 UTC on Aug 29. The CME is believed to originate from a region of coronal dimming located near N05W35. The CME is directed to the north-west and the bulk of the CME is not expected to be Earth directed. However, a glancing blow at Earth may be possible. Full analysis is ongoing and more details will be provided later. There were no other Earth-directed CMEs detected in the available coronagraph observations in the last 24 hours.

Vent solaire

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters were reflecting slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind speed ranged between 300 - 380 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude was below 6 nT. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -5 nT and 5 nT. Slow solar wind conditions are expected to prevail during the next days, with a small chance of a weak enhancement on Aug 30 due to a possible arrival of the CME from Aug 26. On Sept 01 solar wind parameters might be slightly elevated due to the arrival of a high-speed stream from a positive polarity coronal hole, that transited the central meridian on Aug 29.

Géomagnétisme

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at mostly quiet levels, with a small chance of increasing to unsettled and active conditions on Aug 30, due to a possible arrival of the CME from Aug 26. On Sept 01 unsettled to active condition may be possible in response to the expected high-speed stream arrival associated with the coronal hole (positive polarity) that transited the central meridian on Aug 29.

Niveaux de flux de protons

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold for the next days.The 24h electron fluence was at normal level. The electron fluence is expected to be at normal levels in the next days.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 106, sur la base de 14 stations.

Indices solaires pour 29 Aug 2023

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	081
Flux solaire à 10 cm	142
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	005
Ap estimé	005
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	089 - Basé sur 20 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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