Affichage des archives de lundi, 16 octobre 2023

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2023 Oct 16 1231 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
16 Oct 2023	142	004
17 Oct 2023	140	006
18 Oct 2023	140	005

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

The solar flaring activity was at low levels. There are currently seven numbered regions on the solar disk, including newly numbered region NOAA 3468 on the south west limb. The largest flare was a C3.9 flare, peaking at 16:33 UTC on October 15, associated with NOAA AR 3464. This region along with NOAA AR3468 were the most active over the period. NOAA AR 3460 is about to rotate off the disk. The remaining regions were mostly stable and quiet. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares likely and a low chance for isolated M-class flares.

Éjection de masse coronale

There were no Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) detected in the available coronagraph observations.

Trous coronaux

A small negative polarity coronal hole near the equator began to cross the central meridian on October 16.

Vent solaire

The solar wind parameters reflected a return to a slow solar wind regime The interplanetary magnetic field ranged between 0 and 4 nT. Bz had a minimum value of -2 nT. The solar wind speed decreased further from 430km/s to 330 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the negative sector (field directed towards the Sun). The solar wind parameters are expected to reflect nominal conditions for the next days, with possible slight enhancements from October 18 due to coronal hole influences.

Géomagnétisme

During last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels (NOAA Kp 1-2, K Bel 1-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at quiet levels.

Niveaux de flux de protons

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu threshold as measured by GOES 16. It is expected to remain below this threshold over the next days. The 24 hour electron fluence was at nominal levels. The electron fluence is expected to be at nominal levels for the next days.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 102, sur la base de 16 stations.

Indices solaires pour 15 Oct 2023

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	145
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	004
Ap estimé	003
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	102 - Basé sur 21 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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