Affichage des archives de dimanche, 12 novembre 2023

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2023 Nov 12 1247 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
12 Nov 2023	136	014
13 Nov 2023	130	014
14 Nov 2023	124	010

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at moderate levels. The largest flare was a M1.2-flare, with peak time 17:29 UTC on November 11, associated with NOAA AR 3477 (beta). The second largest flare was a C8.4-flare, with peak time 04:48 UTC on November 12, associated with NOAA AR 3484 (beta). There are currently 4 numbered active regions on the visible disk and a new yet unnumbered active region has emerged near the centre of the solar disk. Most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours came from NOAA AR 3477 (beta), which has started to rotate over the western limb. NOAA AR 3481 has turned into a plage region. All other active regions have remained relatively stable. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at low levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected, M-class flares possible.

Éjection de masse coronale

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images. A filament eruption was observed in SDO/AIA 304 and 193 in the north-west quadrant of the Sun at 09:38 UTC on November 12. No coronagraph images of the associated CME are available yet. Further analysis of the CME seen in LASCO C2 data at 20:00 UTC on November 10, shows a possible glancing blow on November 15.

Trous coronaux

A small equatorial negative polarity coronal hole is passing the central meridian. We do not expect a significant impact from a high- speed stream associated with this coronal hole.

Vent solaire

A shock in the solar wind at 05:30 UTC on November 12 marks the arrival of the ICME from November 09. The speed jumped from 461 km/s to 531 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field from 2 to 5 nT. The speed later reached 600 km/s and the magnetic field 8 nT with Bz down to -6 nT. The Earth is under the influence of the ICME and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The Earth may also come under the influence of a high- speed stream but we expect its signal to be masked by the ICME.

Géomagnétisme

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours reached active levels globally (Kp 4) and unsettled conditions locally (K_Bel 3). Unsettled to active conditions can be expected in the next 24 hours under the influence of an ICME.

Niveaux de flux de protons

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES-16 was above the 1000 pfu threshold. The electron flux is expected to decrease below this threshold in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to be at moderate levels in the next 24 hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 089, sur la base de 10 stations.

Indices solaires pour 11 Nov 2023

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	142
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	004
Ap estimé	002
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	090 - Basé sur 18 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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