Affichage des archives de jeudi, 30 novembre 2023

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2023 Nov 30 1231 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Moderate (ISES: Major) magstorm expected (A>=50 or K=6)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
30 Nov 2023	170	010
01 Dec 2023	168	065
02 Dec 2023	165	058

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity was low but frequently during the past 24 hours, with NOAA Active Region (AR) 3500 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma, Catania group 65) being the most productive. As it remains magnetically complex, more C-class flares are highly expected, isolated M-class flares are possible, and there is a small chance of a low X-class flare in the next 24 hours.

Éjection de masse coronale

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the last 24 hours.

Vent solaire

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions were typical of the slow SW regime during the last 24 hours. The SW speed gradually dropped from 440 to 330 km/s, while the total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) varied between 1 and 6 nT. The North-South magnetic component (Bz) ranged between -5 and 4 nT, while the interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was almost exclusively directed away from the Sun in the past 24 hours. Up to three Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) are expected to arrive as one and likely have a very strong effect in the next 24 hours.

Géomagnétisme

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet both globally and locally (NOAA Kp 1- to 2 and K BEL 0 to 2) during the last 24 hours. They are expected to increase to moderate storm conditions in the next 24 hours as a result of the likely arrival of one or more Coronal Mass Ejections (CME).

Niveaux de flux de protons

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was at nominal levels during the last 24 hours but it is expected to increase above the 1000 pfu threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at very low levels during the past 24 hours and is expected to increase to moderate levels in the following 24 hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 168, sur la base de 03 stations.

Indices solaires pour 29 Nov 2023

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	171
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	004
Ap estimé	004
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	169 - Basé sur 19 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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