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Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2023 Dec 01 1242 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Major (ISES: Severe) magstorm expected (A>=100 or K>=7)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
01 Dec 2023	163	054
02 Dec 2023	165	057
03 Dec 2023	168	075

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity was moderate during the past 24 hours with an M1 flare from NOAA Active Region (AR) 3502 (magnetic configuration Beta, Catania group 64) detected today at 04:19 UTC. Most of the C-class flaring activity was emitted from the nearby NOAA AR 3500 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma, Catania group 65). More M-class flaring activity is likely and there is a small chance of an X-class flare from either of the pair of NOAA AR 3500 and 3502 in the next 24 hours.

Éjection de masse coronale

A partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) can be seen in LASCO-C2/SOHO images starting from yesterday 23:24 UTC. This appears to be an event associated with a flare at the south west solar limb and is not expected to be geo-effective. As more data become available the geo-effectiveness of this CME will be re-accessed.

Trous coronaux

A large negative polarity coronal hole started crossing the central solar meridian today. It is expected to produce a strong high speed stream that will become geo-effective on Dec 4.

Vent solaire

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions were typical of the slow SW regime until the arrival of a strong disturbance today at 08:50 UTC. This is most likely the arrival of one to three Corona Mass Ejections (CME) expected late yesterday or early today. The SW speed reached 560 km/s, the total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) has peaked at 28 nT and its North- South magnetic component (Bz) dropped as low as -26 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly directed away from the Sun during the past 24 hours. The SW conditions are expected to remained strongly affected by the arrival of the CME for the next 24 hours.

Géomagnétisme

Geomagnetic conditions were both globally and locally quiet (NOAA Kp 0+ to 2- and K BEL 0 to 2) until the arrival of the expected Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) today at 08:50 UTC. They have since reached globally the major storm level (NOAA Kp 7) for the 09:00-12:00 UTC period and locally the moderate storm level (K BEL 6) for the same period. The geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain up to major storm levels, both globally and locally, in the next 24 hours.

Niveaux de flux de protons

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the 1000 pfu alert threshold during the last 24 hours and is expected to to remain below this threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at low levels during the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 133, sur la base de 04 stations.

Indices solaires pour 30 Nov 2023

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	168
Flux solaire à 10 cm	167
AK Chambon La Forêt	016
AK Wingst	005
Ap estimé	004
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	148 - Basé sur 13 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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