Affichage des archives de lundi, 18 décembre 2023

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2023 Dec 18 1255 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Moderate (ISES: Major) magstorm expected (A>=50 or K=6)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
18 Dec 2023	158	076
19 Dec 2023	159	060
20 Dec 2023	159	019

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

The solar flaring activity was at moderate level during the last 24 hours, with several C-class flares and a M-class flare. The strongest flare was GOES M1.1 flare from NOAA AR 3520 which peaked at 20:17 UTC on Dec 17. During the flare, the source region (AR 3520) of the flare had beta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours with few C-class flares, possibly M-class flares and a low chance for isolated X-class flares.

Éjection de masse coronale

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph observations during last 24 hour.

Trous coronaux

A negative polarity coronal hole in the southern hemisphere is starting to cross the central meridian today.

Vent solaire

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters were disturbed under the influence of several ICMEs. The solar wind speed ranged between 430 km/s to 560 km/s. The North-South component (Bz) ranged between -14 and 12 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field ranging from 4 nT to 17 nT. The solar wind speed may increase if the high speed stream from the positive polarity coronal hole that crossed the central meridian on Dec 17 hits the Earth in the coming 24 hours.

Géomagnétisme

Geomagnetic conditions have reached moderate storm levels globally (Kp 6) and active condition levels locally (K_Bel 4) starting at 06 UT on Dec 18, due to the continuous impact of the several ICMEs that departed the Sun from Dec 14 and early Dec 15. We expect active to moderate geomagnetic storm conditions in the next 24 hours possibly due the arrival of high speed streams from the positive polarity coronal hole which crossed the central meridian on Dec 17.

Niveaux de flux de protons

The 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. It is expected to stay below the threshold level for the next 24 hours.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence continues to be at normal to moderate level. It is expected that this parameter will remain below the threshold level in the coming 24 hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 136, sur la base de 08 stations.

Indices solaires pour 17 Dec 2023

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	155
AK Chambon La Forêt	038
AK Wingst	028
Ap estimé	035
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	111 - Basé sur 22 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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