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Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2024 Jan 14 1231 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
14 Jan 2024	177	006
15 Jan 2024	177	007
16 Jan 2024	177	007

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at low levels. The largest flare was a C4.2-flare, with peak time at 00:22 UTC on January 14, associated with NOAA AR 3536 (beyond the west limb). There are currently 13 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3541 (beta-delta) has become more magnetically complex and it has been the most active region in the last 24 hours, producing most of the C-flares. All other regions have alpha or beta magnetic field configurations. NOAA AR 3539 (beta) has started to rotate off the visible disk, one new region was numbered NOAA AR 3553 (alpha) after rotating onto the visible disk, and one additional region is rotating into view from the easter limb. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected and M-class flares probable.

Éjection de masse coronale

Based on currently available coronagraph images, no Earth directed coronal mass ejections have been observed in the last 24 hours.

Trous coronaux

The small mid-latitude coronal hole in the northern hemisphere (with positive magnetic polarity) finished crossing the central meridian around 07:00 UTC on January 14. The associated high speed solar wind stream may reach Earth no earlier than late January 15.

Vent solaire

Slow solar wind conditions were recorded over the past 24 hours. The solar wind speed as measured by DSCOVR ranged between 470 km/s and 490 km/s, but DSCOVR data is marked as suspect while ACE data was unavailable during this period. The total interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between 4 nT and 7 nT, with the Bz (north-south) component reaching a minimum value of -7 nT. The phi-angle remained in the positive sector (away from the Sun). In the next 24 hours, we expect similar slow solar wind conditions.

Géomagnétisme

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally and locally quiet (Kp 2 and K Bel 2). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected in the next 24 hours due to possible prologued negative Bz conditions in the solar wind.

Niveaux de flux de protons

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is at background level, and is expected to remain at background level in the past 24 hours. Due to the number of complex regions currently on the disk, we cannot exclude the possibility of new proton events in the next 24 hours.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV GOES 16 electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 164, sur la base de 05 stations.

Indices solaires pour 13 Jan 2024

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	185
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	002
Ap estimé	002
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	180 - Basé sur 08 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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