Affichage des archives de jeudi, 28 décembre 2023

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2023 Dec 28 1246 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
28 Dec 2023	147	003
29 Dec 2023	146	004
30 Dec 2023	149	004

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

The solar flaring activity remained at low levels. The strongest activity was marked by two C1.9 flares, produced by the newly numbered NOAA AR 3534 (beta), which contributed to most of the flaring activity over the past 24 hours, and by NOAA AR 3533 (beta). Isolated low levels of flaring was produced from over the west limb, possibly from NOAA AR 3526 and NOAA AR 3528. The largest active region on the visible disc, NOAA AR 3529 (beta), has shown some decay as it approaches the west limb. The remaining regions have shown no significant flaring activity nor signs of development. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the coming days with probable C-class flares and minor chances for M-class flaring.

Éjection de masse coronale

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Trous coronaux

A large negative polarity equatorial coronal hole is expected to cross the central meridian later today. The high speed stream related to this coronal hole could arrive to Earth on Dec 31st.

Vent solaire

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were indicative of slightly faster background slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind velocity weakly varied in the range of 417 km/s to 489 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field had a maximum value of about 7 nT with a very weak minimum Bz of -2.8 nT. The B field was almost entirely in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions in the next 24 hours are expected to be mostly at slow background solar wind conditions with remaining chances for slight disturbances due to any glancing blow arrival from the two CMEs from Dec 24th. Unperturbed solar wind conditions are expected thereafter until a possible high speed stream arrival on Dec 31st.

Géomagnétisme

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet. Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected in the next 24 hours with possible isolated unsettled to active conditions in case of any delayed arrival of the CMEs from Dec 24th. Afterwards mostly quiet conditions are expected to prevail until an expected high speed stream arrival on Dec 31st.

Niveaux de flux de protons

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to continue so over the next days.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV GOES 16 electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days.The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 099, sur la base de 09 stations.

Indices solaires pour 27 Dec 2023

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	149
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	005
Ap estimé	004
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	081 - Basé sur 16 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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