Affichage des archives de mercredi, 24 janvier 2024

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2024 Jan 24 1231 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
24 Jan 2024	183	005
25 Jan 2024	175	014
26 Jan 2024	170	017

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity was high with nine M-class flares registering over the past 24 hours. NOAA Active Region (AR) 3561 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma, Catania sunspot group 36) produced eight of those flares: five yesterday (an M4 at 16:40 UTC; M1 at 12:58, 14:59, 18:44, and 20:01 UTC) and three today (all M1 at 00:38, 01:40, and 05:43 UTC). NOAA AR 3559 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma, Catania sunspot group 43) produced an M1 flare yesterday at 13:08 UTC. For the next 24 hours NOAA AR 3561 is expected to produce more M-class flares, while NOAA AR 2559 is likely to reduce its flaring activity to C-class level. There is also a small change of an isolated X-class flare in the next 24 hours.

Éjection de masse coronale

A partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph images today 01:36 UTC. It is associated with an M2 flare that took place at solar S16W48 and has small chance of directly affecting Earth's environment. However, a glancing blow from this CME is to be expected in the first half of Jan 28.

Vent solaire

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions are affected by a glancing blow delivered by the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) launched at 21 Jan 00:24 UTC, that arrived earlier than predicted. The SW speed increased to approximately 450 km/s and has remained at this level since. The total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) has fluctuated between 2 and 12 nT, while its North-South component varied between -11 and 6 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was directed towards the Sun initially, but turned to the away from the Sun direction as a result of the glancing blow. The SW conditions are now back to the slow SW regime and they are expected to remain at this state for the next 24 hours.

Géomagnétisme

Geomagnetic conditions were globally quiet to active (NOAA Kp 1+ to 4-) and locally quiet to unsettled (K BEL 1 to 3) during the last 24 hours. They are expected to drop to unsettled or quiet levels in the next 24 hours.

Niveaux de flux de protons

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as measured by GOES-18, gradually dropped to background levels during the past 24 hours. It is likely that it will remain at these levels, however, there is still a chance of a proton event in the next 24 hours.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the 1000 pfu alert threshold during the last 24 hours and is expected to to remain below this threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at low levels during the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 126, sur la base de 06 stations.

Indices solaires pour 23 Jan 2024

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	180
AK Chambon La Forêt	015
AK Wingst	008
Ap estimé	007
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	145 - Basé sur 14 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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