Affichage des archives de lundi, 22 janvier 2024

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2024 Jan 22 1234 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
22 Jan 2024	176	003
23 Jan 2024	179	019
24 Jan 2024	182	009

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity was moderate during the last 24 hours with a M1.5-calss flare associated with NOAA Active Region (AR) 3559 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma, Catania sunspot group 43) registered with a peak time at 06:22 UTC on January 22. The same AR produce almost all C-class flaring activity of the past 24 hours. It is highly expected to continue producing numerous C-class flares and probably isolated M-class flare(s). NOAA AR 3561 (magnetic configuration Beta, Catania sunspot group 35) and NOAA AR 3562 (magnetic configuration Beta) have experience significant flux emerge during the past 24 hours and are expected to also produce C-class flares.

Éjection de masse coronale

A partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph images on January 21, at 00:24 UTC with the main direction towards North-East. SIDC/CACTUS tool provides an estimated projected angular width of 186 degrees, and a projected speed of 480 km/s. The source of this CME was located near the bipolar NOAA Active Region 3559 (North-East quadrant). The analysis indicated at most a glancing blow would be visible in the solar wind parameters near Earth around January 24-25. Two other partial halo CME observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph images on January 21, at 09:12 and 15:16 UTC are estimated to be back-sided, hence, not geo-effective.

Vent solaire

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions were stable during the last 24 hours. The SW speed varied between 330 km/s and 470 km/h, while the interplanetary total magnetic field (Bt) fluctuated between 3 nT and 7 nT. Its North-South component (Bz) ranged between -6 nT and 7 nT, while the interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was directed predominantly away from the Sun during the past 24 hours. A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is expected to arrive to the Earth's environment in the next 24 hours and cause a significant impact.

Géomagnétisme

Geomagnetic conditions were both globally and locally quiet (NOAA Kp 1- to 2 and K BEL 1 to 2) during the past 24 hours. In the next 24 hours they are expected to become active as a result of the expected arrival of a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME).

Niveaux de flux de protons

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the 10 pfu alert threshold level during the last 24 hours. However following the M1.5-calss flare associated with NOAA Active Region 3559 and registered with a peak time at 06:22 UTC on January 22, the proton flux increased as observed in GOES-16 and GOES-18 measurements. It is now reaching the alert threshold.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the 1000 pfu alert threshold during the last 24 hours and is expected to to remain below this threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at low levels during the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 173, sur la base de 09 stations.

Indices solaires pour 21 Jan 2024

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	179
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	004
Ap estimé	004
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	157 - Basé sur 09 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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