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Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2024 Feb 18 1230 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
18 Feb 2024	163	010
19 Feb 2024	163	010
20 Feb 2024	165	013

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

The solar flaring activity was at low levels, with several C-class flares recorded in the past 24 hours. The largest flare was a C7.9 flare, peaking at 18:34 UTC on Feb 17, associated with NOAA AR 3584 (beta). Low flaring activity was also produced by NOAA AR 3576, by NOAA 3583 (beta) and by ARs behind the east limb (N18E87). Other regions on the disc have simple configuration of their photospheric magnetic field (alpha and beta) and did not show any significant flaring activity. The solar flaring activity is expected to be mostly at low levels with several C-class flares, and possible isolated M-class flare in the next 24 hours.

Éjection de masse coronale

A halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph data from 13:36 UTC on February 17th. The CME is associated to an eruption from behind the south-east limb. Based on the source location, no impact on Earth is expected. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Vent solaire

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were reflecting near slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind speed decreased from values around 350 km/s to 300 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude remained below 8 nT. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -6 nT and 5 nT. The magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the positive sector (field directed away from the Sun). Slow solar wind conditions are expected to prevail during the next days, with a chance for a weak enhancement late on Feb 19th early on Feb 20th due to possible glancing blow arrival associated with the Feb 16th filament eruption.

Géomagnétisme

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled both globally and locally (NOAA-Kp and K-BEL: 1 to 3) during the last 24 hours. Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected to prevail during the next days. Unsettled to isolated active levels might be reached on Feb 19 – Feb 20 related to possible glancing blow ICME arrival.

Niveaux de flux de protons

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux continued to decrease and, although still slightly elevated, remained below the 10pfu threshold. The proton flux is expected to continue to decrease over the next 24 hours.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, remained below the 1000 pfu threshold. It is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24 hour electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 096, sur la base de 07 stations.

Indices solaires pour 17 Feb 2024

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	170
AK Chambon La Forêt	012
AK Wingst	005
Ap estimé	004
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	113 - Basé sur 17 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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