Affichage des archives de jeudi, 25 janvier 2024

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2024 Jan 25 1231 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
25 Jan 2024	177	007
26 Jan 2024	172	008
27 Jan 2024	170	006

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity was moderate during the last 24 hours, with an M1 flare associated with NOAA Active Region (AR) 3561 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma, Catania sunspot group 45) yesterday 20:58 UTC. For the next 24 hours the activity is expected to drop to low levels, as NOAA AR 3561 is likely to produce only C-class flares, although there is still the possibility of an isolated M-class flare.

Éjection de masse coronale

A partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) can be seen in LASCO-C2/SOHO images starting from 22 Jan 10:36 UTC. It is associated with a filament eruption close to the solar meridian and is estimated to arrive later today. A partial halo CME, that can also been seen in LASCO-C2/SOHO images as lunched 23 Jan 04:24 UTC, is likely to be geo-effective and arrive at the second half of tomorrow. A CME seen in LASCO-C2/SOHO images starting from 22 Jan 22:00 UTC is associated with an M1 flare from the solar location S17W30. It is a relatively narrow CME, but is expected to deliver a glancing blow to Earth's environment towards the second half of tomorrow.

Vent solaire

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions of the last 24 hours resemble the slow wind regime. The SW speed very gradually dropped from 470 to 400 km/s, while the total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) has fluctuated between 1 and 7 nT and its North-South component varied between -6 and 6 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was directed towards the Sun almost exclusively during the last 24 hours. The SW conditions are expected to be affected by a glancing blow from the passing of a nearby Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) in the next 24 hours.

Géomagnétisme

Geomagnetic conditions were globally quiet (NOAA Kp 1- to 2-) and locally quiet to unsettled (K BEL 0 to 3) during the last 24 hours. They are expected to become unsettled in the next 24 hours due to the expected arrival of a glancing blow from a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME).

Niveaux de flux de protons

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was well below the 1000 pfu alert threshold during the last 24 hours and is expected to to remain at this level during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at low levels during the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 093, sur la base de 07 stations.

Indices solaires pour 24 Jan 2024

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	117
Flux solaire à 10 cm	172
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	010
Ap estimé	009
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	121 - Basé sur 11 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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