Affichage des archives de samedi, 30 mars 2024

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2024 Mar 30 1238 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
30 Mar 2024	160	005
31 Mar 2024	148	011
01 Apr 2024	143	010

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

The solar flaring activity was at moderate levels. The largest flare of the period was M1.2 flare with peak time 19:34 UTC March 29. This flare originated from Catania region 22 (NOAA AR 3615), which is the largest and most complex region on disk (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma-Delta) but is now rotating over the west limb. The remaining two regions Catania regions 24 and 28 (NOAA AR 3617 and 3619) are also approaching the west limb and are simple and quiet. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, while Catania region 22 remains on the disk, with C-class flares expected, M-class flares likely and a low probability for an X-class flare.

Éjection de masse coronale

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Vent solaire

The solar wind conditions reflected a slow solar wind regime. The solar wind speed gradually decreased from values around 360 km/s to around 320 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field ranged between 0 and 7 nT. The Bz component reached a minimum value of -2 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi was in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind speed is expected to continue to reflect slow solar wind conditions on March 30. Possible enhancements in the solar wind speed, due to a weak high-speed stream associated with the positive polarity coronal holes, may be expected from March 31.

Géomagnétisme

Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet levels (NOAA Kp 2 and Local K Bel 2). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at quiet levels on March 30 and 31.

Niveaux de flux de protons

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the 10pfu threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold for the next 24 hours, with a slight chance that the proton flux may increase in response to any strong flares from Catania region 22 (NOAA AR 3615).

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux increased slightly but remained below the 1000 pfu threshold as measured by GOES 16. It is expected to remain below this threshold over the next days. The 24-hour electron fluence was at nominal levels. The electron fluence is expected to be at nominal levels over the next day.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 048, sur la base de 07 stations.

Indices solaires pour 29 Mar 2024

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	167
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	006
Ap estimé	004
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	082 - Basé sur 24 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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