Affichage des archives de dimanche, 31 mars 2024

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2024 Mar 31 1240 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
31 Mar 2024	135	014
01 Apr 2024	129	016
02 Apr 2024	132	010

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

The solar flaring activity was at moderate. The largest flare of the period was a long duration M9.4 flare with peak time 21:16 UTC March 30. This flare originated from Catania region 22 (NOAA AR 3615), which has now almost fully rotated over the west limb. Two new, small regions have emerged, one in the east numbered NOAA AR 3624 and one (as yet unnumbered) near N18E11. These along with Catania regions 24 and 28 (NOAA AR 3617 and 3619) are simple and quiet. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with possible further flares from Catania region 22 as it remains just over the limb, with C-class flares expected, M-class flares likely and a low probability for an X-class flare.

Éjection de masse coronale

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Trous coronaux

A negative polarity northern polar coronal hole that extends down to midlatitudes began to cross the central meridian on March 31.

Vent solaire

The solar wind conditions the arrival of the high-speed stream from the positive polarity coronal hole, which began to traverse the central meridian on March 27. The solar wind speed gradually increased from values around 315 km/s to around 530 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field gradually increased, reaching a maximum value of 14nT at 23:20 UTC March 30 before decreasing to values around 5nT. The Bz component reached a minimum value of -10 nT at 00:12 UTC March 31. The interplanetary magnetic field phi was in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The Earth is expected to continue to be under the influence of this high-speed stream on March 31 and April 01.

Géomagnétisme

Geomagnetic conditions were at unsettled to active levels (NOAA Kp 4- and Local K Bel 4). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at unsettled to active levels on March 31 and April 01.

Niveaux de flux de protons

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the 10pfu threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold for the next 24 hours. There is a small chance of an increase from flares associated with Catania region 22 (NOAA AR 3615).

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux increased slightly but remained below the 1000 pfu threshold as measured by GOES 16. It is expected to remain below this threshold over the next days. The 24-hour electron fluence was at nominal levels. The electron fluence is expected to be at nominal levels over the next day.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 066, sur la base de 19 stations.

Indices solaires pour 30 Mar 2024

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	140
AK Chambon La Forêt	016
AK Wingst	005
Ap estimé	005
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	048 - Basé sur 22 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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