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Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2024 May 03 1231 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
03 May 2024	146	008
04 May 2024	150	017
05 May 2024	154	013

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at high levels. The largest flare was a X1.7-flare, with peak time 02:22 UTC on May 03 associated with NOAA AR 3663 (beta-gamma-delta). There are currently 6 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3663 (beta-gamma-delta) and NOAA AR 3664 (beta-gamma-delta) are the most magnetically complex regions on disk and produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. A new yet unnumbered active region has started to emerge on the north-east quadrant of the visible solar disk. All other regions were inactive and stable. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected and M-class flares probable and small chance for an isolated X-class flare.

Éjection de masse coronale

A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME), was seen at 12:01 UTC on May 02, in LASCO C2 data. This CME is associated with NOAA AR 3654. Further analysis is ongoing. Another CME, was seen at 03:01 UTC on May 03. This CME is associated with NOAA AR 3663 and the X1.7-flare, with peak time 02:22 UTC on May 03. No impact at Earth is expected from this CME.

Trous coronaux

An equatorial positive polarity coronal hole is crossing the central meridian. A high-speed stream from this coronal hole may impact the Earth on May 08.

Vent solaire

In the last 24 hours, the Earth came under the influence of an ICME. A shock was detected in the solar wind data around 13:15 UTC on May 02. The interplanetary magnetic field jumped from 10 nT to 19 nT and further increased to 22nT, with Bz reaching minimum value of -18 nT; The solar wind speed jumped from 360 km/s to 410 km/s and the solar wind density increased from 5/cm3 to 11/cm3 at the shock. The shock is related to an ICME arrival probably related to a Coronal Mass Ejection, that was detected at 12:36 UTC on April 29, in LASCO C2 data. Around 01:50 UTC on May 03 the solar wind increased again from 445 km/s to 511 km/s, the solar wind density decreased from 12/cm3 to 3.4/cm3 and the interplanetary magnetic field decreased from 11 nT to 4 nT. The phi-angle was mainly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun) until 02:42 UTC on May 03 when it switched to the negative sector. We may be seeing the influence of a high-speed stream from a positive polarity coronal hole. Slow solar wind conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Géomagnétisme

Geomagnetic conditions have reached moderate storm levels globally and locally (Kp 6 + and K_Bel 6+) between 15:00 UT and 21:00 UT on May 02. Geomagnetic conditions then remained at active levels until 04:00 UT on May 02 after which they reduced to quiet to unsettled levels. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Niveaux de flux de protons

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 148, sur la base de 09 stations.

Indices solaires pour 02 May 2024

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	127
Flux solaire à 10 cm	142
AK Chambon La Forêt	056
AK Wingst	035
Ap estimé	039
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	132 - Basé sur 23 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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