Affichage des archives de jeudi, 2 mai 2024

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2024 May 02 1231 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
02 May 2024	129	010
03 May 2024	125	011
04 May 2024	121	014

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at moderate levels. The largest flare was a M1.9-flare, with peak time 14:40 UTC on May 01 associated with NOAA AR 3654 (beta-gamma-delta). There are currently 6 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3654 (beta-gamma-delta) is the largest and is rotating over the west limb. NOAA AR 3663 (beta-gamma-delta) is the second largest and is responsible for most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. NOAA AR 3664 (beta- gamma) has rotated over the east limb and produced some minor C-class flaring. All other regions were inactive and stable. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected and M-class flares possible.

Éjection de masse coronale

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images. Further analysis of the CME seen in LASCO C2 data at 06:36 UTC on May 01, shows a possible glancing blow late on May 04.

Trous coronaux

A small positive polarity low-latitude coronal hole is crossing the central meridian. A high-speed stream from this coronal hole may impact the Earth on May 04.

Vent solaire

Slow solar wind conditions were recorded over the past 24 hours. The interplanetary magnetic field varied between 3 nT and 13 nT, with the Bz reaching a minimum value of -12 nT. The solar wind velocity varied in the range of 324 to 407 km/s. The phi-angle was mainly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun) with periods in the negative sector. Slow solar wind conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Géomagnétisme

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally quiet to unsettled (Kp 3 and K Bel 3). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Niveaux de flux de protons

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 129, sur la base de 18 stations.

Indices solaires pour 01 May 2024

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	135
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	010
Ap estimé	010
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	105 - Basé sur 22 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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