Affichage des archives de lundi, 8 juillet 2024

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2024 Jul 08 1243 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
08 Jul 2024	172	012
09 Jul 2024	171	011
10 Jul 2024	170	014

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at moderate levels with background high C-class flaring and multiple low M-class flares. The largest activity was a M2.5-flare, with peak time 22:31 UTC on July 07 associated with an active region behind the south-east limb. Further low M-class flaring was attributed to NOAA AR 3733 (beta) and NOAA AR 3738 (beta-gamma). There are currently nine numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3738 is currently the largest and magnetically most complex region, responsible for most of the flaring activity on the visible solar disk. The solar flaring activity is likely to remain at moderate levels over the coming days with likely further M-class flares and small chances for isolated X-class flaring.

Éjection de masse coronale

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Trous coronaux

A negative polarity mid-latitude coronal hole is currently residing on the central meridian. The high speed stream emanating from it might arrive to Earth starting from July 11.

Vent solaire

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) recorded background slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind velocity was in the range of 311 km/s to 422 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was slightly elevated, reaching a maximum of 11 nT, possibly marking a sector boundary crossing. The Bz reached a minimum value of -8.5 nT. The B field phi angle was predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun) with a sharp switch to the negative sector around 11:15 UTC on July 8. The solar wind conditions are expected to register minor enhancements from a possible mild high speed stream (HSS) arrival on July 8 and July 9. Further enhancement in the solar wind are possible with more anticipated HSS arrivals on July 10 and July 11.

Géomagnétisme

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled. Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected throughout July 8 and July 9 with possible isolated active conditions due to anticipated weak HSS arrival. Isolated minor storms are possible later on July 10 and July 11 with further anticipated HSS arrivals.

Niveaux de flux de protons

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 112, sur la base de 24 stations.

Indices solaires pour 07 Jul 2024

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	171
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	010
Ap estimé	009
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	124 - Basé sur 16 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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