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Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2024 Jul 09 1232 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
09 Jul 2024	168	009
10 Jul 2024	167	015
11 Jul 2024	166	014

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at moderate levels with background C-class flaring and an impulsive M1.1 flare, peak time 12:41 UTC on July 08, associated with an active region behind the south-east limb, which is currently rotating onto the visible disc and continues to produce C-class flares. Another unnumbered active region has rotated from the south-east limb and has contributed to the background flaring activity. There are five numbered active regions on the visible disk with NOAA AR 3738 (beta-gamma) remaining the largest and magnetically most complex region, responsible for majority of the flaring activity on the visible solar disk. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at low to moderate levels over the coming days with 60% chance for M-class flaring and 10% chances for isolated X-class flaring.

Éjection de masse coronale

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Vent solaire

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were indicative of background slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind velocity weakly varied between 355 km/s to 438 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field registered a maximum value of 8.6 nT and a minimum Bz of -5 nT. The B field phi angle was switching between the negative and positive sectors. The solar wind conditions are expected to be at background solar wind conditions throughout July 09. Weak enhancements are possible on July 10 and July 11 with expected mild high speed stream arrivals.

Géomagnétisme

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally quiet to unsettled and locally over Belgium reached active levels between 15:00 and 16:00 UTC on July 08. Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected throughout July 09. Quiet to active conditions are expected for late on July 10 and July 11 with anticipated high speed stream arrivals.

Niveaux de flux de protons

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 140, sur la base de 22 stations.

Indices solaires pour 08 Jul 2024

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	140
Flux solaire à 10 cm	169
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	012
Ap estimé	013
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	111 - Basé sur 28 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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