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Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2024 Aug 09 1240 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
09 Aug 2024	350	018
10 Aug 2024	360	028
11 Aug 2024	365	030

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity was at high levels over the last 24 hours, with 1 X class flare and 4 M-class flares being recorded. The strongest was an X1.3 flare peaking at 19:35 UTC on August 07. This flare was associated with NOAA AR 3777 and had an associated Type II radio emission recorded at 19:29 UTC. NOAA AR 3774 and NOAA AR3780 are the other two largest and most complex regions on the disk. NOAA AR 3780 and 3781 also produced M-class flaring. The rest of the regions were stable and quiet. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares expected and a chance for X-class flares.

Éjection de masse coronale

An asymmetric halo CME mostly directed to the south-west, was detected in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data from 19:48 UTC August 08, associated with the X1.3 flare. Initial analysis suggests that this CME would have an Earth directed component and may impact earth late on August 11.

Vent solaire

The solar wind conditions reflected a slow solar wind regime. The interplanetary magnetic field was mostly stable around 6 nT with a minimum value of -6nT. The solar wind speed ranged between 350 and 420 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). There is a small chance of minor enhancements in the solar wind speed and interplanetary magnetic field on August 09 due to the solar wind from the negative polarity coronal hole, which began to cross the central meridian on August 5, and a possible weak shock from the partial halo CME of August 05. Stronger enhancements are possible from August 10, due to possible combined influence of the CMEs of August 07.

Géomagnétisme

Geomagnetic conditions were mostly at quiet to unsettled levels (NOAA Kp 1-2 and Local K BEL 1-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at unsettled to active levels on August 09, with possible minor to moderate storm conditions on August 10 and 11 in response to possible CME arrivals.

Niveaux de flux de protons

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the 10pfu threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. There is a small chance of an increase in the proton flux in the next days as there are several complex regions on disk, moving towards a location that would be geoeffective.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu threshold. It is expected to remain below this threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at nominal levels. The electron fluence is expected remain at nominal levels over the next 24 hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 259, sur la base de 12 stations.

Indices solaires pour 08 Aug 2024

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	336
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	009
Ap estimé	008
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	299 - Basé sur 25 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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