Affichage des archives de samedi, 13 juillet 2024

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2024 Jul 13 1243 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
13 Jul 2024	208	007
14 Jul 2024	208	022
15 Jul 2024	208	010

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at moderate levels with background C-class flaring and an M1.4-flare, peak time 03:18 UTC on July 13, associated with the largest and most complex active region NOAA AR 3738 (beta-gamma). This region was responsible for most of the registered flaring activity. There are currently eight numbered active regions on the visible solar disc, including the newly numbered NOAA AR 3748 (beta). Two new regions (possibly returning regions NOAA AR 3719 and NOAA AR 3720) have rotated onto disc from behind the south-east limb. NOAA AR 3743 (beta) has slightly decreased its magnetic complexity and produced isolated high C-class flaring together with NOAA AR 3740 (beta), which is now rotating behind the west limb. The remaining active regions have remained mostly stable and quiet. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming days with 60% chance for M-class flaring and 15% chances for isolated X-class flaring.

Éjection de masse coronale

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Vent solaire

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were indicative of background slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind velocity weakly varied between 308 km/s and 390 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field registered a maximum value of 5.9 nT and a minimum Bz of -5 nT. The B field phi angle was predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to register moderate disturbances later on July 13 and July 14 with anticipated high speed stream arrival related to a positive polarity equatorial coronal hole which crossed the central meridian on July 10.

Géomagnétisme

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally quiet and locally mostly quiet with a couple of hours with unsettled periods registered over Belgium. Quiet to active conditions are anticipated for late July 13 and July 14 with possible isolated minor storms due to anticipated high speed stream arrival.

Niveaux de flux de protons

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 192, sur la base de 10 stations.

Indices solaires pour 12 Jul 2024

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	235
Flux solaire à 10 cm	210
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	007
Ap estimé	006
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	172 - Basé sur 13 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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