Affichage des archives de lundi, 7 octobre 2024

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2024 Oct 07 1231 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
07 Oct 2024	257	030
08 Oct 2024	254	010
09 Oct 2024	251	011

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity over the last 24 hours has been at moderate levels, with four M-class flares. The strongest flare was an M1.5 flare peaking at 21:19 UTC on October 06, associated with SIDC sunspot group (SG) 249 (NOAA AR 3839, magnetic type alpha). There are currently eight numbered active regions on the solar disk. The most complex one is SIDC SG 257 (NOAA AR 3842, magnetic type beta-gamma-delta). SIDC SG 279 (NOAA AR 3850, magnetic type beta-gamma) has emerged in the southeast quadrant. A new, active region (SIDC SG 281) is rotating on disk from the east limb, in the southeast quadrant. SIDC SGs 249, 254, 272, 273 (NOAA ARs 3839, 3841, 3843, 3844) are currently rotating behind the west limb. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares expected and a chance for X-class flares.

Éjection de masse coronale

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery.

Vent solaire

The solar wind conditions were enhanced during the last 24 hours following the arrival of the Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection (ICME) as reported on October 06. Speed values reached 540 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field reached a maximum of 17 nT. The Bz component varied between -11 nT and 16 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field angle varied between the positive and negative sector. Further enhancements in the solar wind conditions may be expected over the next 24 hours due to the predicted arrival of the CME observed on October 04.

Géomagnétisme

Geomagnetic conditions globally reached minor storm conditions (NOAA Kp 5+) between 21:00 UTC on October 06 and 06:00 UTC on October 07. Geomagnetic conditions locally reached minor storm conditions (K BEL 5) between 00:00 UTC and 02:00 UTC on October 07. The minor storm conditions were a consequence of the arrival of the Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection (ICME) arrival that was reported on October 06. Active conditions (NOAA Kp 4) with possible minor storm intervals (NOAA Kp 5) may be expected globally and locally over the next 24 hours due to the predicted arrival of the CME observed on October 04.

Niveaux de flux de protons

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux increased between 16:00 UTC and 22:00 UTC on October 06 but remained below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. It is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 173, sur la base de 16 stations.

Indices solaires pour 06 Oct 2024

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	265
AK Chambon La Forêt	034
AK Wingst	015
Ap estimé	016
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	171 - Basé sur 19 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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