Affichage des archives de mardi, 8 octobre 2024

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2024 Oct 08 1232 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
08 Oct 2024	278	016
09 Oct 2024	275	008
10 Oct 2024	273	022

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity over the last 24 hours has been at high levels, with two X-class flares. The first was an X2.1 flare, peaking at 19:13 UTC on October 07, produced by SIDC Sunspot Group (SG) 257 (NOAA AR 3842, magnetic type beta-gamma). The second was an X1.0 flare, peaking at 21:02 UTC on October 07, produced by SIDC SG 273 (NOAA AR 3844, magnetic type beta). There are currently nine numbered active regions on the solar disk. The most complex one is SIDC SG 217 (NOAA AR 3848, magnetic type beta-gamma-delta). SIDC SG 281 (NOAA AR 3852, magnetic type beta) has rotated on disk from the east limb, in the southeast quadrant. SIDC SGs 254 and 257 (NOAA ARs 3841 and 3842) are currently rotating behind the west limb but may still exhibit flaring activity. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares expected and a chance for X-class flares.

Éjection de masse coronale

A partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was detected around 20:30 UTC on October 07 in LASCO/C2 and LASCO/C3 coronagraph imagery. It is most likely associated with the X2.1 flare peaking at 19:13 UTC on October 07, produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 257 (NOAA AR 3842). The CME is mostly directed to the southwest. Preliminary analysis suggests a velocity around 950 km/s and that a glancing blow may arrive at Earth at UTC midday on October 10. A related type IV radio emission was observed, starting at 20:07 UTC on October 07. A narrower, fainter CME was first seen around 02:00 UTC on October 08 in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery, most likely associated with the X1.0 flare peaking at 21:02 UTC on October 07, produced by SIDC SG 273 (NOAA AR 3844). Due to the position of its source region, no impact on Earth is expected. A third, wide CME was detected around 05:40 UTC on October 08 in LASCO/C2 and LASCO/C3 coronagraph imagery. It is associated with a large filament eruption in the southwest quadrant. The CME is mostly directed to the south. Preliminary analysis suggests a velocity of around 1100 km/s. Further analysis of all events is ongoing.

Vent solaire

The solar wind conditions were enhanced during the last 24 hours following the arrival of the Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection (ICME) reported on October 06 and are gradually returning to the slow wind regime. Maximum speed values were around 490 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field reached a maximum of 17 nT. The Bz component was mostly negative, reaching a minimum of -16 nT between 02:00 UTC and 04:00 UTC on October 08. The interplanetary magnetic field angle changed from negative to positive around 19:15 UTC on October 07. Mostly slow solar wind conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.

Géomagnétisme

Geomagnetic conditions globally reached major storm conditions (NOAA Kp 7- to 7+) between 00:00 UTC and 06:00 UTC on October 08, followed by moderate storm conditions (NOAA Kp 6-) until 09:00 UTC on October 08. Geomagnetic conditions locally varied between active and minor storm levels (K BEL 4 to 5) over the last 24 hours. The geomagnetic storms were a consequence of the arrival of the Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection (ICME) that was reported on October 06. Mostly active conditions (NOAA Kp and K BEL 4) are expected globally and locally over the next 24 hours.

Niveaux de flux de protons

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was enhanced during the past 24 hours but remained below the threshold. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours, with further enhancements possible pending further eruptive activity from the active regions near the west limb.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 18 was enhanced between 19:45 UTC and 21:20 UTC on October 07, but remained below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. It is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 136, sur la base de 14 stations.

Indices solaires pour 07 Oct 2024

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	208
Flux solaire à 10 cm	277
AK Chambon La Forêt	066
AK Wingst	040
Ap estimé	045
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	168 - Basé sur 23 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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