Affichage des archives de mardi, 5 novembre 2024

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2024 Nov 05 1231 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
05 Nov 2024	246	008
06 Nov 2024	248	010
07 Nov 2024	252	011

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity was high over the past 24 hours, with 5 M-class flares identified. The largest flare was a M5.59 flare (SIDC Flare 2498) peaking on November 04 at 15:41 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 305 (NOAA Active Region 3883). This active region is the most magnetically complex region on disk and produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. The second largest flare a M2.66 flare (SIDC Flare 2505) peaking on November 05 at 06:54 UTC was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 308 (NOAA Active Region 3886). A total of 10 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 308 (NOAA Active Region 3886) has rotated on the visible disk. SIDC Sunspot Group 279 (NOAA Active Region 3880) has turned into a plague region. Four regions are expected to rotate over the west limb. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at high levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected, M-class flares very likely and a small chance for an X-class flare.

Éjection de masse coronale

A Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in LASCO/C2 data at around 17:24 UTC on November 04 and was associated with a M5.59 flare (SIDC Flare 2498). Further analysis of the event is ongoing. Further analyses of the CMEs observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data at 00:36 UTC on November 04 shows a small chance of a glancing blow early on November 08.

Vent solaire

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) remained slightly elevated. The interplanetary magnetic field, B, reached a maximum value of 9 nT with a minimum Bz of -6 nT. The solar wind velocity varied between 417 and 483 km/s. The phi-angle was mainly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun), with periods in the negative sector. The solar wind conditions are expected to remain slightly elevated over the next 24 hours.

Géomagnétisme

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were locally and globally quite to unsettled (Kp 1-3 and K BEL 1-3). Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

Niveaux de flux de protons

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux continued to decrease towards background levels. The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux is expected to decrease to nominal levels over the 24 hours.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 213, sur la base de 09 stations.

Indices solaires pour 04 Nov 2024

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	242
Flux solaire à 10 cm	242
AK Chambon La Forêt	015
AK Wingst	014
Ap estimé	016
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	191 - Basé sur 20 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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